Vancouver HIV/AIDS
Care Co-ordinating Committee
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Documents: Environment Report 1999-2002
This is a companion document to the Strategic Plan and a work in progress; this version March 31, 2000

PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

Projections are difficult at the best of times. However, BCCDC foresees some of the following trends:

  1. The rate of new infection among injection drug users will probably not be as high as it was in 1996 and early 1997. However, it will probably remain unacceptably high with an incidence settling into the 5% range as measured by the VIDUS project.
  2. Although substantial declines in the number of gay men testing newly positive for HIV over the past decade have been noted, this trend is currently leveling. BCCDC suggests we are reaching a steady state whereby an incidence of approximately two percent per annum might be observed among young gay men as measured through the Vanguard cohort. Renewed efforts will be required in order to see further improvements in the situation for the gay community.
  3. Improvements in offering HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy to pregnant women has reduced the rates of vertical transmission.

The BC Persons With AIDS Society points out that rates of HIV infection will almost certainly continue to increase in BC’s prison population. Although accurate figures are all but impossible to obtain, there is strong circumstantial evidence that both prevalence and incidence of HIV infection among incarcerated individuals are dramatically higher than among the general population. A wide variety of cultural and institutional factors work against effective prevention strategies within the correctional system and make the provision of care, treatment and support for HIV-positive inmates difficult at best.